摘要
针对吐鲁番盆地3个测站1960—2011年的气温观测资料,利用线性回归、滑动平均分析年、季气温的变化趋势。结果表明:近52 a吐鲁番盆地气温以0.373℃/10 a速度明显上升,其中增暖幅度最大是冬季,最小是夏季;1996年以后增幅最明显;春、夏、秋、冬和年平均温度最大值均出现在21世纪,最低值多出现在20世纪70年代;秋季与年温度相关性最大,夏季与年的相关性最小;极端气温也均呈上升趋势。利用Mann-Kendall法和滑动T检验法进行气温突变分析,结果表明吐鲁番盆地气温在1996年发生了明显暖突变。
Based on the temperature data during 1960-2011 from the three national meteorological observation stations in the Turpan Basin region in Xinjiang, the characteristics of temperature at seasonal and yearly scale were analyzed by investigating the linear tendency and moving average. The results showed that the temperature in Turpan Basin increased obviously 0.373 ~C/10 a in recent 52 years, and the increase rate was the maximum in winter and the minimum in summer.The warming became significant since 1996. The maximum values of seasonal （spring, summer, autumn and winter） and yearly average temperature were all occurred in the 21st century, and the minimum temperature was occurred in the 1970s. The temperature correlation between autumn average and annual average was in the best agreement, while the summer average and annual average was less. Both the maximum and minimum temperature increased. The temperature jump was analyzed through the Method of Mann - Kendal and slide t test. The results showed that the abrupt changes of temperature was in 1996.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2012年第5期35-39,共5页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
吐鲁番盆地
气温
变化趋势
突变
Turpan Basin
temperature
tendency changes
abrupt changes
