摘要
综合考虑洪峰预报误差、峰现预报时间误差、水力因子和泄洪方案组合的随机性,建立了水库风险分析模型,并运用到LW水利枢纽中。通过选取的两场洪水运算,结果表明:在上影响因子共同作用下,按照模型推出的两场洪水泄洪方案优选的原则进行调度,LW水库即使没有预泄,起调水位取369.8m时,校核洪水的漫坝风险为0;频率为5%的洪水对应的漫坝风险及下游防护对象的防洪风险均为0。该模型为进一步挖掘已建水库的兴利效益或降低待建水库的工程造价,提供了保证。
By establishing models of risk analysis for reservoirs based on stochastic forecast errors of flood peak and peak time,reservoir normal level,discharge scheme of reservoir,which is various,complex and random and so on.The risk of LW reservoir has been researched into.A study of two floods shows that,if the reservoir level is less than checking level and the main factors are taken in,there is no risk of dams and the downstream,by using reasonable operation,which is decided by the model.The model helps the built reservoir to increase benefits,and the reservoir being building cut down on high costs.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2012年第10期148-151,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
风险分析模型
洪峰预报
峰现预报时间
泄洪方案
risk analysis model
flood peak forecast values
peak time forecast values
discharge scheme
