摘要
近年来国内外对碳排放与碳排放强度的因素分解研究,大部分集中在影响因素个体的贡献程度上,而对于影响因素的稳定性及其对碳排放或碳排放强度变化的动态冲击效应方面,缺乏相应的深入研究。本文采用Kaya恒等式的改进模型,对碳排放强度进行因素分解,得到碳排放因子、能源强度、能源结构与产业结构四个影响因素。以1980年-2009年国内的各项相关数据为基础数据,对能源强度、能源结构与产业结构与碳排放强度的相关性进行平稳性检验,并对碳排放强度与能源强度、能源结构、产业结构进行整体协整检验,检验通过后运用脉冲响应函数分析三种影像因素的变化对碳排放强度的冲击效应;利用SVAR模型中的方差分解功能,计算三种影响因素对碳排放强度的贡献度,结果显示能源结构对碳排放强度的冲击效应最弱,能源强度稍强,第三产业比重效果最为显著。
In recent years carbon emission factors decomposition analyses have focused on the contribution rate.Research on factors influencing stability,and the study of correlations between influencing factors and carbon emission intensity is scarce.Here,we analyzed carbon emission intensity using the improved Kaya identity,and broke it down into the carbon emission divisor,energy intensity,energy structure and industry structure.Because the carbon emission divisor is considered to be constant,the energy intensity,energy structure,industry structure were analyzed as influencing factors on carbon emission intensity.Energy intensity is expressed by energy consumption per GDP,energy structure is expressed by coal consumption proportion,and industry structure is expressed by tertiary industry proportion.The stability of these factors was tested from 1980-2009.The results show that the time series of these three influencing factors were stationary for carbon emission intensity.A test for co-integration of variables was performed and a Structural Vector Autoregression model（SVAR） of the carbon emission intensity and three influencing factors was constructed.Using an Impulse Response Function,we found a clear correlation between carbon emission intensity and the three influencing factors.The contribution of each factor was determined by Variance Decomposition.These results show that industry structure has the most significant shock effect,at-0.58%,on the carbon emission intensity of the three influence factors and its contribution rate is 41.434%.The shock effect of energy intensity is weaker than for industrial structure,at 0.28%,and a contribution rate of 9.794%.Energy structure has the weakest shock effect for carbon emission intensity,of-0.19%,and a contribution rate of 6.696%.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第11期2106-2114,共9页
Resources Science
基金
天津大学自主创新基金(编号:60304009)
关键词
碳排放强度
Kaya恒等式
VAR与SVAR模型
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
中国
Carbon emission intensity
Kaya identity
Vector Autoregression and Structural Vector Autoregression model
Impulse Response Function
Variance Decomposition
China
