摘要
本文在对货币政策传导机制进行理论分析的基础上,利用线性和非线性格兰杰因果关系检验方法对货币政策传导机制中传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道、资产价格传导渠道以及信贷传导渠道进行了检验和识别。结果发现,传统凯恩斯利率传导渠道在整个样本区间内都是有效的。金融危机后资产价格传导渠道中股票价格传导渠道和房地产价格传导渠道有效性明显增强,表明现阶段对我国股票市场和房地产市场进行有效监管,规范股票市场和房地产市场的运行机制,对其进行科学合理的宏观调控,不仅关系到股票市场和房地产市场的自身发展,还关系到货币政策能否有效实施,因此需要高度关注。
In this paper, we test and identificate the traditional Keynesian interest-rate channel, asset-price channel and credit-availability channel, on the basis of theoretical analysis on the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We find that the traditional Keynesian interest-rate channel is effective before and after the financial crisis, and the effectiveness of the stock price and the real estate prices transmission channels as the asset-price channel is significantly enhanced after the financial crisis, so effective regulation and macro intervention on the stock market and real estate markets should be implemented, because it involves not only the development of the stock market and real estate markets, but also related to the effectiveness of the implementation of monetary policy.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期3-12,54,共11页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&006)
国家自然科学基金项目(70971055)
