摘要
基于2002～2011年国内天胶价格、国际天胶价格、国内合成橡胶价格、国内汽车产量、世界经济增长率的月度数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果检验对国内天胶价格波动因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:国际天胶价格、国内合成橡胶价格是国内天胶价格波动的最主要因素。国内天胶价格对国内合成橡胶价格及汽车产量有引导作用。
Based on the monthly data,from 2002 to 2011,of domestic natural rubber price,international natural price,domestic synthetic rubber price,domestic car production and world economic growth,this study applies co-integration test,Granger Causality Test to analyze the factors that influence the price of natural rubber.The result shows that the price of international rubber and domestic synthetic rubber are the main causes.Domestic natural rubber price can lead the domestic synthetic rubber price and the car production.
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2012年第4期373-376,共4页
Issues of Forestry Economics
