摘要
现阶段产业转型升级成为中国经济发展的一个明显趋势。浙江产业体系能够较好地反映中国产业的典型特征,其转型升级的经验也有一定的借鉴意义。基于浙江省宏观季度数据实证可得出浙江省产业转型升级的经验特征:首先,产业内的技术进步与技术效率存在相互促进的关系,产业间的技术进步存在挤出效应;其次,经济系统开放程度的提高并不利于产业转型升级;最后,汇率、利率等外生冲击对产业转型升级具有不同的影响路径,政府在制定宏观政策时应对此予以充分关注。
Technical progress and paths of technical efficiency evolution may be interconnected between different industries.As the result of technology conduction between different industries and its spillover,the technical progress in one industry may bring a shock to the technologies in other industries.As the transformation and upgrading of China＇s economy has gradually become an important goal and trend of future development,there is an increasing need for research into the relationship between the different paths that industries take in their technical and efficiency evolution.Given the importance of technical progress and the impact channels of technical progress and technical efficiency evolution,a feasible policy option is to select appropriate leading industries to drive forward the development of other industries and the technical progress of the entire economy.The aim of this research is to provide evidence to support such a policy option. Taking into account the typicality of the industrial system and the urgency of industry upgrading in Zhejiang Province,we selected its top ten industries as a sample.Applying the DEA method,we break down the quarter changes in their productivity into progress at the technical frontier and technical efficiency evolution.Then the Global Vector Auto Regression（GVAR） model is used to observe the conducting trends of technical progress and of efficiency evolution as endogenous variables among different industries and to analyze the impact of different exogenous shocks on the technical progress and efficiency evolution in different industries. First of all,we have found that although on one hand the technical efficiency changes of most industries have a role to play in promoting technical progress,on the other hand,the progress at the technical frontier has resulted in a decreasing trend of average technical efficiency in the same industry.This reflects a complex relationship between technology and efficiency. Secondly,there is no clear evidence of reciprocal technology-conduction existing between different industries.On the contrary,we have found that the technical progress in one industry has brought down the speed of technical progress in other industries on average.This may reflect the defects of our market mechanism. Thirdly,trade openness has positive impacts on improving technical efficiency in some industries,but have an overall negative impact on the technical progress in all industries.The flow of information and technology brought by opening up has made possible the better use of existing technology,but it has also brought fierce competition,which makes the technology spillover theory become unrealistic. Fourthly,we have found that the exchange rate,interest rate,fluctuations in world oil prices,and other exogenous shocks not only have a direct impact on industrial output,but also on the technology and efficiency of the industry to some extent.This reflects the cost of opening up from another angle：more risks and volatility from the outside world.
出处
《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期126-141,共16页
Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
首批浙江省重点创新团队"经济转型与发展创新团队"
浙江省哲学社会科学规划重大项目(09JDQY001ZD)
关键词
开放型经济
转型升级
内生关联
外生冲击
效率增进
产业体系
open economy
transformation and upgrading
endogenous links
exogenous shocks
efficiency improvement
industrial system
