摘要
对我国各地区1953～1966年和1978～1996年2个时段的主要农业气象灾害进行比较分析。结果表明,我国绝大部分地区农业气象灾害存在发生频率增加、发生面积扩大及灾害发生趋于平稳等3种演变趋势。同时根据灰色系统理论诊断出各地区影响农业生产的主导气象灾害,并按照各种灾害对总受灾面积的影响序列将全国各地区粗略划分为8种类型,为制定区域农业发展战略,合理安排农业生产提供参考依据。
By comparative analysis of four kinds of agrometeorological disasters including drought, flood, hailstorm and windstorm, frostbite during two periods from 1953 to 1966 and from 1978 to 1996, we had found that there were three kinds of evolutionary trends existing in most of regions in China: increasing disaster frequency, expanding areas covered by meteorological disasters and decreasing fluctuation of meteorological disasters. According to the grey system theory, the lead-ing cause of meteorological disaster in each region had been diagnosed and all the regions had fallen into 8 categories based on the sequence of contribution of each meteorological disaster to the total disaster area to design agricultural development strategies and arrange regional agricultural pat-terns reasonably.
出处
《生态农业研究》
CSCD
2000年第2期15-19,共5页
Chinese Journal of Eco-agriculture
基金
中国科学院重点资助
关键词
农业气象灾害
演变趋势
灰色关联分析
Agrometeorological disaster,Evolutionary trend,Grey relation analysis
