摘要
利用层次分析与状态空间法,从生态弹性力、资源环境承载力以及社会经济协调力三个方面构建洞庭湖区生态承载力评价体系,对洞庭湖区2001、2005和2010年3个时相的生态承载力进行了定量评价。结果表明:①生态承载力综合指数2001年为"中等",2005和2010年均为"较低",呈"U"型变化趋势,反映了引起生态承载力变化的最直接驱动力是人类社会经济活动。②生态弹性力、资源环境承载力和社会经济协调力三者状态由"中弹性—中承载—较低协调"转变并维持"较低弹性—较低承载—较低协调";其中,社会经济协调力持续"走低",资源环境承载力和生态弹性力呈现"回暖"趋势。③县域生态承载力综合指数空间差异明显,10年来稳定上升的只有沅江市和南县,一直处于下降的有岳阳市区、岳阳县、汨罗市、益阳市区、常德市区和汉寿县,其它9个县(区、市)处于不稳定变化之中。
Using analytic Hierarchy Process and the state space method, constructing evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity of the Dongting Lake area from three aspects： eco-elastic force, resource and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic coordination force, evaluating quantitatively ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area in 2001, 2005 and 2010. The results showed that： （1） Comprehensive index of the ecological carrying capacity in 2001 is ＂medium＂, and in 2005 and 2010 both is ＂lower＂, emerging ＂U＂ type trend, reflecting the most direct drivin8 force causing changes in the ecological carrying capacity is human social and economic activities. （2）The state ot eco-elastic force, resource and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic coordination force change from ＂medium elasticity-medium carrying- low coordination＂ into and maintain a ＂lower elasticity-lower carrying-lower coordination＂; which socio-economic coordination force continued to ＂lower＂, resource and environment carryin~ capacity and ecological elastic force showed the trend of ＂warmer＂. （3） The spatial differences of country comprehensive index of ecological carrying capacity country are obvious, for 10 years, only Yuanjiang City and Nan County keep steady increase, the urban area of Yueyang, Yueyang County, Miluo City, Yiyang City, Changde urban areas and Hanshot County have been in decline, the other nine counties are in the unstable changes.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期138-142,共5页
Economic Geography
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(12YJAZH166)
湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(11JD53)
关键词
生态承载力
评价体系与模型
状态空间法
洞庭湖区
ecological carrying capacity
evaluation system and model
state-space techniques
Dongting Lake region
