摘要
近年来,随着核电和化工产业在中国的大规模发展,突发性大气环境污染事件频发。为在该类事故发生后快速确定其危险程度和范围,研发了一套突发性大气环境污染事件应急预警系统。该系统由中尺度气象预报模式WRF、风场诊断模式CALMET、高斯烟团扩散模式CALPUFF3部分组成。为验证该系统的准确性,用它模拟了2011年3月福岛核事故的影响情况。结果表明该系统可以精确模拟危险性气体的影响范围和时间。该系统对突发性、间歇性事故源排放模拟准确,可以快速预测事故发生后的浓度场变化,并且具有高时空分辨率、自动化等优越性。
This paper intends to introduce an emergency warning sys- tem for the atmospheric environmental pollution accidents we have de- veloped in this paper. The purpose of our warning system is to meet the needs of our country and the world to predict and warn the ever- increasing oceurence of unexpected atmospheric environmental pollu- tion accidents due to the mushrooming of nuclear power and chemical enterprises in recent decades which have brought about abrupt changes in the spatial distribution and temporal variation of hazardous gases or dusty particles and result in WRF （the mesoscale weather forecasting model）, CALMET （a diagnostic 3-dimensional meteoro- logical model） and CALPUFF （an air quality dispersion model）. These models have shown excellent performance while simulating the nuclear accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in the middle of March, 2011. In our paper, we have modeled the release, transportation and diffusion processes of Cs - 137 （caesium-137） by using this WRF - CALMET - CALPUFF system for five days, from 12th March to 16th March. During the period of nuclear accident, Cs- 137 was released into atmosphere with time-specific emission rate based on the study of the accident conditions. The peak value of the warning tends to appear from 6：00 to 11：00 a.m. on 15th Mar. According to the radiation monitoring results in various prefectures in Japan, no radioactive emissions were detected during 12- 14th Mar. The environmental radio level in Tokyo, Chiba, Gunma, and Kana- gawa would turn up dramatically in 5：00- 10：00 a.m. on 15th Mar. Meteorological field and Cs - 137 transport and deposition were simu- lated and compared with Japanese observed data, and then we have made our evaluation of the model performance. The result we have worked out helps to find that it is in nice accord with the monitoring dataset, both in area-specific arrival time of Cs - 137 and the cover- age at specific times. Thus can be seen that our emergency warning system in a position to well simulate the intermittent and sporadic source like explosion or hitting of any outside sources. Meanwhile, it can also automatically download the real-time up-to-date meteorologi- cal data and calculate the meteorological field every day. Compared with the previous similar systems, ours can work out the estimation of the concentration distribution faster. Besides, the results of the esti- mation have higher spatiotemporal resolution, the finest one being 100 m and the time interval--1 min. Therefore, our warning system can be expected to be used to the nuclear power plants and chemical in- dustry zones to make the quick rational decisions right after the emer- gent atmospheric environmental pollution accidents.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期252-257,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家863计划项目(2008AA06A415
2009AA06A41802)
