摘要
稻飞虱是造成湖北省水稻大幅度减产原因之一。它是一种典型的气候型迁飞虫害,起飞、迁飞和沉降均与气象条件密切相关。本文采用高空气象场资料、植保站稻飞虱灯下监测资料,在个例分析基础上,利用质点轨迹、扩散及沉降模式HYSPLIT-4,模拟稻飞虱迁飞高峰日后向轨迹,分析湖北省稻飞虱迁飞路径和主要虫源。主要结论:(1)湖北省稻飞虱迁入主要路径有5条:西南路径、南路路径、东南路径、东路路径和东北路径;(2)春夏季稻飞虱迁入路径以西南路径比例最大,平均为47%;其次为南路和东南路径;(3)秋季稻飞虱迁入路径以东北路径比例最大,平均为30%,其次为西南路径,比例为23%;(4)秋季与春夏季相比,西南路径比例下降了24%,东北路径增加了22%,东路路径增加了8%,南路、东南路变化不大。(5)偏南方向(西南路、南路和东南路)三种路径之和春夏季为80%,秋季为55%,秋季比春夏季减少了25%;(6)综合春夏季、秋季,西南路径对湖北省全省都有较大影响,对南部的影响大于北部,偏北路径秋季影响大,南部和东南路径对江汉平原影响最大。(7)理论上稻飞虱虫源区在19°～25°N、90°～120°E之间,以东西向为长轴、南北向为短轴、面积约为3300 km×660 km的矩形区域内,越南、泰国、缅甸、柬埔寨和菲律宾等地是湖北稻飞虱初始虫源地,云南、贵州、两广、福建、湖南、江西和江淮等地区为湖北省稻飞虱的二次虫源地或三次虫源地。根据未来数值预报场进行质点前向轨迹模拟,综合分析虫源地是否有大量稻飞虱、是否符合起飞条件,目标地是否有下沉气流配合,可以开展稻飞虱迁入气象预报,此工作尚需进一步开展业务试验。
Rice planthopper is one of the causes for a kind of typical climatical moved flying insect pest, the great reduction of the yield of rice in Hubei Province. It is its takeoff, flying and settlement are closely related to weather conditions. In this article, the upper-air meteorological field data, and the rice planthopper monitoring data under the lamp, are used to analyze the example, using particle track and diffusion and settlement pattern HYSPLIT-4, etc. for exploring the fly path and main source of rice planthopper in Hubei Province. The main conclusions may be drawn as follows.. （1） There are five paths of rice planthopper having moved in Hubei Province, i.e. the south- west path, the south path, the southeast path, the east path and the northeast path. （2） In spring and summer, the southwest path is the main path, with its proportion of 47%, followed by the south path and the southeast path. （3） In autumn, the northeast path is the main path, with its proportion of 30%, followed by the southwest path, being 23% of the total number. （4） In comparison with spring and summer, in autumn the proportion of southwest path is decreased by 24 %, that o{ northeast path is increased by 22%, that of the east path is increased by 8%, and very few changes in the south path and southeast path. （5） The proportion of the southly path （the sum ofthe southwest path, the south path and the southeast path） is 80% in spring and summer, and that is 55% in au- tumn. Compared with spring and summer, autumn has a decrease of 25%. （6） No matter whether it is spring and summer, or autumn, the southwest path is the most impact on Hubei Province, and influence on the southern part is greater than the northern part. The influence of the northeast path in autumn is greater than that in spring and sum- mer. The impacts of south path and southeast path on the Jianghan Plain are greater than the others. （7） In theory, the source area Of rice planthopper is 19°-25°N, 90°- 120°E, with an east-west long axis and a north-south short ax- is, a rectangular area of approximately 3300 km×660 km Countries Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Philippines are the initial sources of rice planthopper, and regions Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, etc. , are the secondary sources or the third-class insect sources. Combining the forward trajectory simulation by numerical prediction field and the comprehensive analysis of insect source and target areas, we can carrry out the planthopper moving weather forecasting, and this work still needs further developing in operational tests.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第12期1538-1545,共8页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
湖北省气象局基金项目"湖北省水稻稻飞虱迁飞路径气象预报方法研究与应用"资助
关键词
稻飞虱
高峰日
迁飞路径
后向轨迹
模拟
rice planthopper, peak day, migratory path, backward trajectory, simulation
