摘要
利用生态足迹理论对成都市2000年-2009年的水资源承载力和生态足迹进行了计算,以明确其水资源承载力状况及其动态变化情况。结果显示,近年来成都市水资源承载力受水文情势的影响波动性较大,各年份水资源承载力与年降雨量呈显著的正相关关系,相关系数达0.95;水资源生态足迹逐年增加,各足迹账户中,农业用水比重最大,生态用水比重最小,工业用水量处于增长趋势,但增长速度远远低于同期GDP增长速度。成都市水资源在2006年、2007年、2009年三年出现了生态赤字,水资源足迹与承载力之比为1.16、1.06、1.29;万元GDP水资源生态足迹在逐年下降,水资源开发利用程度和利用效率逐步提高。利用主成分分析法对成都市水资源承载力驱动因子进行分析后发现,人口和经济技术的发展水平是成都市水资源承载力主要影响因子。从总量上来说,成都市基本能满足需水总量的要求,但由于水资源的时空分布不均、水污染严重、水源涵养能力下降、水利设施不足等,成都市水资源可开发空间逐渐减小。
The carrying capacity of water resources and ecological footprint of Chengdu city from 2000 to 2009 were analyzed based on the ecological footprint theory, which can provide the current conditions and dynamics variations of water resources carrying capacity. Recently, the ecological carrying capacity of water resources was affected significantly by the hydrological con-ditions, and it was in an apparently positive correlation with annual precipitation. The correlation coefficient was 0. 95. The eco-logical footprint of water resources increased every year. In terms of each footprint, the agricultural water use accounted for the largest proportion of water use while the ecological water use was the least. The industrial water use increased every year, but the increasing rate was far lower than the GDP growth rate. The ecological deficit of water resources occurred three times in 2006,2007, and 2009 in Chengdu,while the ratios of water footprint and carrying capacity of water resources were 1.16,1.06, and 1.29 for the three years respectively. The ecological footprint of water resources per 10,000 Yuan GDP declined every year, which indicated that the degree and efficiency of utilization of water resources improve gradually. The principal component anal- ysis was used to analyze the primary driving factors for water resources carrying capacity drive in Chengdu, and the results showed that the main impact factor is the level of development of population, economy, and technology. In terms of the total a-mount of water resources, the total water demand was met in Chengdu. However, due to the uneven temporal and spatial distri-bution of water resources, serious water pollution,decreasing of water conservation ability,and insufficient of water conservaney facilities, water shortage is still a long-term problem in Chengdu.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期110-114,共5页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
成都市
水资源承载力
驱动因子
生态足迹
Chengdu city
water resources carrying capacity （WRCC）
driving factor
ecological footprint
