摘要
为了早日实现江苏省由建筑大省向建筑强省的转变,有必要进一步挖掘江苏省建筑业和产业结构之间的深层次关系。文章运用Granger因果关系检验和Johansen协整分析法,对江苏省建筑业和该省产业结构的互动关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:建筑业与产业结构的各指标之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。在10%的显著水平上,建筑业与产业结构之间具有单向因果关系,建筑业的发展是引起第三产业从业人员及产值比重变动的原因。对建筑业与产业结构关系的研究,有助于进一步理解建筑业在江苏省产业结构优化升级中的地位和作用,为江苏省建筑业的发展和与之相关的产业政策的制定提供理论依据。
It is necessary to study the relationship between building industry and industrial structure in Jiangsu province to change Jiangsu Province from a big province to a strong province as soon as possible. Johansen co-integrating test and Granger causality test were used to empirically analyze the relationship between building industry and industrial structure in Jiangsu Province. The results show that there exists the long-term balanced cointegration relationship between the two. There is a one-way causal relationship between building industry and industrial structure at 10% level. The development of building industry leads to the change of employment and production in the tertiary industry. The study on the relationship between building industry and industrial structure contributes to further understanding of the position and role of building industry in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure of Jiangsu Province, which can provide theoretical basis for the development of building industry and the related industrial policy.
出处
《山东建筑大学学报》
2012年第6期579-583,共5页
Journal of Shandong Jianzhu University
关键词
建筑业
产业结构
GRANGER检验
协整检验
building industry
industrial structure
Granger causality test
co-integrating test
