摘要
目的探讨石家庄市气象因素与手足口病发病之间的关系,为预测石家庄市手足口病发病提供依据。方法收集2009—2011年石家庄市每月气象资料(气温、露点、气压、降水量、风速)和手足口病发病资料,使用SPSS 17.0统计软件对气象因素和手足口病发病资料进行相关和回归分析。结果 2009—2011年每月平均气温与手足口病发病数呈正相关(r=0.614,P=0.033);平均气压与手足口病发病数呈负相关(r=-0.688,P=0.013);平均露点、平均降水量、平均风速与手足口病发病数无线性相关性(P>0.05)。选择平均温度(X1)、平均露点(X2)、平均气压(X3)作为自变量,代入多元线性回归模型,采用stepwise法进行多因素分析。结果显示,回归方程为Y=247713.701-64.830X1-33.988X2-241.515X3,回归方程有统计学意义〔模型复相关系数=0.784,决定系数(R2)=0.615,F=8.985,P=0.013〕。对3个自变量进行筛选显示,气压与手足口病发病数间的线性依存关系有统计学意义(P<0.05),气温、露点与手足口病发病数间线性依存关系无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论气象因素与手足口病发病关系密切,深入探讨气象因素与手足口病流行的关系,对于建立疾病早期气象预警系统具有重要意义。
Objective To study the relationship between meteorological factors and Hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） in Shijiazhuang in order to provide evidence for predicting the incidence of HFMD. Methods Data on meteorological factors（temperature,dew point,barometric pressure,amount of precipitation and wind speed） and HFMD from 2009 to 2011 were collected.SPSS 17.0 software was used to conduct correlation and regression analysis on meteorological factors and HFMD. Results The monthly average temperature was positively correlated with HFMD（r=-0.614,P=0.033）;the monthly average barometric pressure was negatively correlated with HFMD（r=-0.688,P=0.013）.Dew point,amount of precipitation and wind speed showed no significant correlation with the incidence of HFMD（P0.05）.The average temperature（X1）,average dew point（X2） and average barometric pressure（X3） were selected into the multivariate linear regression equation,and stepwise method was used to conduct multifactor analysis.The result showed that the regression equation was Y=247713.701-64.830X1-33.988X2-241.515X3,and it had statistical significance（r=0.784,R2=0.615,F=8.985,P=0.013）.The linear dependence relationship between barometric pressure and HFMD showed statistical significance by filtering the display of the three independent variables（P0.05）.The linear dependence relationship between temperature,dew point and HFMD showed no statistical significance（P0.05）. Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to HFMD.Further discussion of the correlation between meteorological factors and HFMD can help establish pre-warning system for HFMD prevention.
出处
《中国全科医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期326-328,共3页
Chinese General Practice
基金
中华预防医学会"公共卫生应用研究与疫苗可预防疾病科研资金"支持项目(20100303)
河北省卫生厅科研基金项目(20120179)
关键词
手足口病
气象因素
疾病暴发流行
Hand
foot and mouth disease
Meteorological factor
Disease outbreaks
