摘要
根据江西省1980年～2011年的年度样本数据,运用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数在内的时间序列分析方法,分析了财政支农、农业信贷与江西省农民人均纯收入增长的关系。研究表明:江西省财政支农、农业信贷与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系,农业税取消后,财政支农对农民人均纯收入增长弹性显著增加,但农业信贷总体上发挥着更为重要的作用;财政支农、农业信贷是农民人均纯收入增长的Granger原因;农业信贷对农民人均纯收入的增长存在滞后效应。因此,应加大财政支农力度,优化财政资金配置;加大农业贷款扶持农业的力度;加强农民自我资金积累。
Based on the annual sample data from 1980 to 2011 in Jiangxi province, and by using the time-series analysis methods such as cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response function, the paper makes an analysis of the relationship between the AFE （ agricultur- al financial expenditure）, the AC （agricultural credit） and the growth of PCNIF （per capita net income of farmers）. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the AFE, the AC and the PCNIF. After the agricultural tax is cancelled, the elasticity of the AFE and the PCNIF increases signifi- cantly. But on the whole, the AC plays a more important role. The AFE and the AC are Granger causes of the growth of PCNIF. The AC produces a lagging effect on the growth of PCNIF. Therefore, the AFE should be increased further, and the allocation of financial capital should be optimized. At the same time, the AC should be improved further, and the accumulation of famers＇ funds should be strengthened.
出处
《广东商学院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期79-87,96,共10页
Journal of Guangdong University of Business Studies
基金
江西省软科学规划项目(2009DR06400)
关键词
财政支农
农业信贷
农民人均纯收入
agricultural financial expenditure
agricultural credit
the per capita net income of farmers
