摘要
针对复杂装备故障预测问题,本文提出一种基于故障模式,影响及危害性分析(failure mode,effects and criticality analysis,FMECA)知识的故障预测贝叶斯网络模型(failure prediction BayesiannetWork,FPBN)建模方法.首先,在分析现有FMECA知识所包含故障信息的基础上,提出了基于FMECA单元的FPBN网络结构转化方法和FPBN概率参数计算方法,建立起对应的FPBN单元模型.然后,对复杂装备各组成部分对应的FPBN单元模型进行连接,构建整体系统的FPBN集成模型.最后,根据某机载平视显示器(head up display,HUD)FMECA知识,建立了HUD电子组件的FPBN模型实例.实例分析结果表明,基于FMECA知识建立的FPBN模型具有不确定性表达和定量分析方法的优势,能够准确、有效地进行复杂装备故障预测.
To establish practical failure prediction model and facilitate its applications, this paper proposed a failure prediction Bayesian network （FPBN） modeling method based on the failure mode, effects and criticality analysis （FMECA）. According to the useful failure relationships embedded in the FMECA unit, the FPBN network construction and the probability parameter computation algorithms were discussed to build the corresponding FPBN unit model. Then, the FPBN unit model of each part in the complex equipment was connected with each other to establish the integrated FPBN model of the whole system. At last, based on the FMECA knowledge of a head up display （HUD）, the practical FPBN case of the electronic part was built for the actual failure prediction tasks. The case analysis results show that, the FMECA knowledge embedded FPBN model, which has the advantages of uncertainty representation and quantitative analysis, can perform effectively in the failure prediction of complex eauiDments.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期187-193,共7页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(71101116,71271170)
国家高技术研究发展计划(2012AA040914)
航空科学基金(2009ZE53052)
西北工业大学基础研究基金(JC20120228)
关键词
复杂装备
故障预测
贝叶斯网络
故障模式
影响及危害性分析
建模
complex equipment
failure prediction
Bayesian network
failure mode
effects and criticalityanalysis
modeling
