摘要
基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)模型、离散灰色预测DGM(1,1)模型和非线形离散灰色预测NLFDGM(1,1)模型,采用FORTRAN语言,编制了路基沉降预测程序GREYMODEL。将该程序应用于铁路客运专线路基典型断面沉降预测,并与实测结果进行对比。结果表明:DGM(1,1)模型作为GM(1,1)模型的离散形式,两种模型的预测结果比较接近,短期预测精度高,中长期预测精度低;结合等维信息建模,非线形离散灰色预测NLFDGM(1,1)模型具有极高的精度和稳定性,在路基沉降预测中推荐使用;并提出了若干关于提高灰色模型预测稳定性和精度的建议。
Settlement prediction program GREYMODEL is compiled by FORTRAN language,based on the model GM（1,1）,the discrete grey model DGM（1,1） and the nonlinear discrete grey model NLFDGM（1,1）.The program is performed then to settlement prediction for representative subgrade section of passenger railway,and the prediction settlement were compared with monitored data.The result indicates that： the settlement prediction results from GM（1,1） model and DGM（1,1） are quite close due to the fact that DGM（1,1） is a discrete form of the GM（1,1） model,both of them with high precision for short-term forecasting and yet low precision for medium-term or long-term forecasting.Combined with equal dimension information modeling,nonlinear discrete grey model NLFDGM（1,1） possess high precision and stability,which is recommended to prediction subgrade settlement,some suggestions was proposed in order to improve prediction precision and stability of the grey model.
出处
《铁道建筑技术》
2012年第12期55-59,共5页
Railway Construction Technology
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划重点课题(2010G018-E-3)
(2009G008-B)
