摘要
在气候变化和人类活动加剧的背景下,极端水文事件发生频率日益增加、发生时间有所改变,所造成的灾害也日趋加重。因此,如何采取科学合理的水文学方法模拟水文过程、预测水文现象是应对水灾害的重要技术手段。本文分析了水文学确定性方法和不确定性方法国内外的发展历程,系统剖析了各种方法的优点以及存在的问题,初步提出了集合研究的框架,包括:(1)不确定性方法的内部集合;(2)确定性方法和不确定性方法的外部集合(过程集合和结果集合)。在此基础上,指出了两类方法集合过程中的若干问题。
In the background of climate change and human activities, the frequency of extreme hydrological events is increased, the occurrence time is different and the loss caused by the disaster is more serious. It is important to simulate and predict the hydrology process with the scientific and reasonable technological methods. This paper reviewed the development courses of both hydrological certainty and uncertainty methods, and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of methods. Based on the above, the framework for the ensemble of certainty and uncertainty methods is put forward, including the internal ensemble of different uncertainty method, and the external ensemble of certainty methods and uncertainty methods. At last, some key problems during the process of ensemble were proposed.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期73-82,共10页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
创新方法工作专项项目(2009IM020100
2011IM011000)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951102)
国家自然科学基金项目(51021066
51009148)
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03)
关键词
变化环境
确定性
不确定性
集合
environmental change
certainty
uncertainty
ensemble
