摘要
选取我国1995-2010年关于高技术产业和经济发展方式转变的相关数据,建立向量自回归模型(VAR),且进行了误差修正,采用脉冲响应和方差分解方法实证检验了我国高技术产业发展和经济发展方式转变之间存在的长期以及短期的动态影响关系。研究表明:我国高技术产业发展与经济发展方式转变之间存在互为因果的关系,且彼此的作用影响将长期持续化;经济发展方式转变将有利于高技术产业发展,消费需求扩大可促进高技术产品升级和产业增值,推动我国新型工业化转型;高技术产业作为先导产业长期来看会促进需求结构的调整,将推动我国经济发展方式向"内需主导"、"消费驱动"转变。
Based on the empirical data of China from 1995 to 2010, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic effect relationship between high-tech industrial development and transformation of economic development patterns. This paper uses vector autoregression model （VAR） model with error correction, and integrates impulse response and variance decomposition to test the assumption. The research indicates： there is a causal relationship between high-tech industrial development and transformation of economic development pattern ; transformation of economic development pattern is proved to be conducive to high-tech industry, and the expansion of domestic demand promotes the upgrade of products and the value increment of industry, while the retransformation of China＇ s industry is promoted. Being a leading industry, high-tech industry can promote the economic transformation in to an optimized pattern which is characterized by domestic demand guided and consumption driven.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期43-50,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(编号:20100480020)
教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目(编号:12YJC630055)
国家社会科学基金青年项目(编号:12CGL088)
关键词
高技术产业
经济发展方式
VAR模型
脉冲响应
方差分解
high-tech industry
economic development pattern
VAR model
impulse response
variance decomposition
