摘要
针对北方城市月度用电量变化的特点 ,建立了基于随动思想的月度用电量时间序列预测模型。该模型具有数据分析功能 ,可根据数据变化的特点自动选择适应的模型 ,同时采用时间序列方法 ,避免了预测其他非用电量因素的困难 ,较好地解决了目前通用软件存在的问题。对哈尔滨市月度用电量进行实际预测 ,取得了理想的结果。
According to the variance of the monthly electricity consumption in norThern cities. the paper establishes a followerthought based sequential forecasting model for the monthly electricity consumption. This model is capable of data analysis andcan automatically adapt the model to data variance. The sequential model successfully avoids the problems in forecasting othernon--electricity consumption factors. It also successfully solves the problems with present universal software. Ideal results areobtained in practical prediction about the monthly electricity consumption in the city of Harbin.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第14期42-44,共3页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
