摘要
目的分析天津市胆石病患者住院费用的变化趋势及影响因素,评价神经网络模型对医保费用的预测和分析效果。方法从天津市2003-2007年住院患者医保数据库中抽取4 205名患者,对住院总费用和药费等各项费用的影响因素进行单因素分析,并建立BP神经网络模型对影响因素进行敏感度分析。结果 2003-2007年胆石病患者的住院费用呈现增长趋势(F=11.818,P=0.001);单因素分析显示年龄、住院天数、医院等级、结石部位、是否手术等对住院费用均有影响(P<0.01);BP神经网络敏感度分析显示,影响因素的敏感度最大的为住院天数(0.492),敏感度最小的为是否有合并症(0.023)。结论天津市胆石病参保患者的住院费用呈增长趋势,影响住院费用的主要因素为住院天数、是否手术、住院次数、结石部位、年龄、医院等级、是否有合并症和炎症部位。BP神经网络模型可应用到胆石病患者住院费用的识别、评价、预测和控制中。
Objective To analyze the hospitalization costs and its influencing factors among patients with cholelithiasis based on BP neural network and,to evaluate the effect of this network on predicting the costs of insured hospitalized patients.Methods Data of 4205 patients with medical insurance were retrieved from hospital database recorded from 2003 to 2007 in Tianjin city.The overall hospitalization costs were analyzed using single factor analysis and BP artificial neural network model.Results The overall cost of insured hospitalized patients with cholelithiasis increased from the year of 2003 to 2007（F=11.818,P=0.001）.Single-factor analysis showed that age,days of hospitalization,hospital grade,frequency of admission,comorbidity,position of calculus,position of inflammation and operation were all the influencing factors of cost（P〈0.01）.The sensitivity analysis showed that the factor influencing hospitalization expense the most was admission days（0.492）and the least was comorbidity（0.023）.Conclusions The hospitalization cost of insured patients with cholelithiasis is going up and several factors could influence this cost especially admission days.Neural network model can be applied to the identification,assessment,prediction and control of hospital expenses for patients with cholelithiasis.
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2013年第1期31-34,共4页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJZH080)
全国统计科学研究计划项目(2009LY011)
关键词
BP神经网络
胆石病
住院费用
影响因素
BP neural network
Cholelithiasis
Hospital expense
Impact factor
