摘要
城市化进程是中国CO2排放快速增长的重要影响因素。基于自回归滞后(Autoregressive-Distributed Lag,ARDL)协整模型,重点分析了政策因素在城市化进程中对CO2排放的影响。ARDL方法更稳健,更适合对小样本数据进行分析。ARDL协整模型构建中以人均CO2排放量为因变量,以城市人口占总人口比重、第二产业占GDP比重、城镇固定资产投资占全社会固定资产投资比例、政策变量等作为自变量。基于1978—2010年的样本数据所得到的研究结果显示:中国1997年节约能源法的颁布对CO2的排放起到了有效的抑制作用;同时,城市人口比例的增长是影响CO2排放快速增长的最重要原因。因此,制定针对城市人口增长的节能减排政策,例如鼓励实现节约型的能源消费模式,对实现中国CO2的减排目标具有重要意义。
China＇s urbanization plays an important role in the rapid growth of CO2 emissions.Based on ARDL co-integration test model,the paper focuses on the impact of policy on CO2 emissions with regard to China＇s urbanization process.ARDL model is more stable and more suitable for small samples.CO2 emissions per capita is treated as the dependent variable,while independent variables include the urbanization rate,the second industry＇s share of GDP,the ratio of urban fixed-asset investment in the total social fixed assets investment and policies.According to data collected over the period of 1978 to 2010,the result shows that China Energy Conservation Law issued in 1997 plays an important role in the CO2 emissions reductions.Meanwhile,the proportion of urban population growth is the most significant contributor to the CO2 emissions increase.Therefore,making policies about energy saving and emission reduction in consideration of urban population growth—for instance,providing the incentive for energy saving—is important in order to achieve the goal of China＇s CO2 emission reduction.
出处
《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第1期5-11,18,共8页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学金资助项目(71073053)
