摘要
我国人工增雨研究有很好的成果,有大规模作业的丰富经验,近年来又有很大进步。"人工增雨研究专辑"选登其中一些具有普遍意义的成果和经验,以及未来近期内可以再进一步提高的一些思考和建议。作者试图先对这些经验和问题进行归纳概述和分析讨论。大体上说,这些成功的研究成果和作业经验有:选择有利于增雨的历史天气—气候背景条件、临近作业时对作业云的判断、机理的数值模拟、凝结核和雨滴及它们的谱分布规律和新催化剂的研制等。未来近期内应该做、而且可以有结果的使作业进一步科学化的工作,除结合经验介绍而指出的一些外,关键是:1)尽量做到观测—预报—作业—效果检验一体化;直接面对增雨作业效果本身进行检验,这样才能使作业和效果检验科学化。为此应用控制论的观点和方法(尤其是工程控制论和自然控制论)是可行的。2)要开展暖性对流云催化作业的研究。3)一定要对已有的工作经验进行系统总结,并一定要将研究工作和作业实践密切结合起来。4)一定要气象和水利部门协调起来,才能充分有效地解决四度空间的水资源利用问题。此外,还涉及其他一些人工影响天气的问题,如防雹、消雾等。
China has produced many good research results and abundant experience in the practice of artificial precipita- tion enhancement. Published in this Special Issue are articles describing successful experience that has general applicability and other articles describing practical possibilities for more scientific and effective operation. Here we first review and discuss these successful experiences： The climatological statistics of weather systems and the regions that are favorable for artificial precipitation enhancement, pre-application methods of selecting cloud-seeding targets, analysis of the relevant mechanism and numerical simulations, the characteristics and spectral distributions of nuclei in both cloud and rain droplets, and new findings regarding novel materials and technologies for more effective cloud seeding. Second,we review practical possibilities for further development： The application of engineering and natural cybernetics, which make possible an entire engineering system consisting of observation, prediction, operation, and evaluation and provide direct evaluation of precipitation enhancement; greater attention to convective warm cloud seeding; more scientific, rig- orous, and systematic analysis of practical experience and close meshing of research into the mechanism with practical applications; and planning for combining weather modification and hydraulic engineering to achieve more effective use of four-dimensional fresh water resources. In addition, we briefly review other aspects of weather modification, such as hail suppression and fog dissipation, and other topics in natural cybernetics.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期659-665,共7页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX2-EW-203
中国科学院大气物理研究所方向项目IAP201209
博士后科学基金20100480436
关键词
人工增雨
催化作业
效果检验
工程和自然控制论
Artificial precipitation enhancement, Cloud seeding, Evaluation of cloud seeding, Engineering and naturalcybernetics
