摘要
目的 了解日本血吸虫卵计量变异特征 ,建立、检验和应用虫卵计量变异的随机模型。方法 在了解虫卵计量变异的基础上建立和检验虫卵计量变异的数学模型 ,应用数学模型绘制估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。结果 湖滩地区居民以从事渔业生产为最主要的感染方式 ,垸内水网地区以从事农业生产为主要感染方式。虫卵在粪中的分布为非随机分布 ,从粪便的头部至尾部、从外层至中心虫卵计数逐渐降低。虫卵计量在不同人群间、人群内、个体间、个体内、粪便内的变异特征均可用负二项分布来描述。以负二项分布理论为基础对虫卵计量变异建立了随机模型 ,并绘制了可以估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。结论 可用负二项分布描述虫卵计量变异特征 ,建立数学模型 ,绘制可以估计人群“实际”感染率的袖珍图。
Objective To understand the features of variations in Schistosoma japonicum egg count and to develop, validate and apply stochastic model of variation in egg count. Methods We developed and validated a mathematical model and applied the model to make a pocket chart to estimate true infection rates of Schistosoma japonicum. Results Fishermen had the highest infection rate among all the occupational groups in the lake region. Farmer had the highest infection rate among all the occupational groups in the water net region. Results showed a clear trend with egg counts decreasing from the beginning of the stool to the end and from the outside layer to the center. The negative binomal distribution could be used to describe the variations of egg count of inter and intra population variations; inter and intra individuals variations; intra stool variations. The model was established on the basis of the theory of negative binomial distribution. A pocket chart to estimate true infection rates of Schistosoma japonicum was drawn through applying the model. Conclusions The features of variations in Schistosoma japonaicum egg counts could be described by the negative binomial distribution. A stochastic model for variations of egg counts is developed and validated successfully. A pocket chart that estimated the true infection rates is drawn by using mathematical model.
出处
《疾病控制杂志》
CAS
2000年第4期294-298,共5页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention
基金
UNDP/ World Bank/ WHO Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases!(95 0 0 8)
铁路科技专项基金!(J97Z0 0 3)
关键词
日本血吸虫
变异
数学模型
虫卵计量
Schistosoma japonicum
variation
negative binomial distribution
mathematical model
pocket chartL
