摘要
对T639和德国数值预报模式(简称德国模式)的降水预报产品进行了分类检验,挑选新疆2011年6场大降水过程分别进行晴雨、大雨(雪)、暴雨(雪)对比分析,了解了降水模式产品误差并为业务中选择较好的预报产品提供了依据。结果表明:两种模式对预报过程降水落区和强降水中心都有较好的指示意义,在过程累计降水预报中,德国模式的晴雨预报准确率为80.49%,高于T639模式;大雨(雪)预报的准确率两种模式接近,大约为44%;T639模式暴雨预报的准确率为29.07%,明显高于德国模式。在逐24 h降水预报中,两种模式都以48～72 h的预报准确率为最高。
The precipitation forecast products of T639 and the Germany namerical model were classified and tested with six episodes of heavy precipitation in Xinjiang in 2011. The results show that the two models have good instructive meaning to forecast of the precipitation location and centers.The fine and rain forecast accuracy rate of Germany namerical model was 80.49% which is higher than T639 model for 24 hours total precipitation, and heavy precipitation forecast accuracy of the two models were close, which was about 44%.But the torrential precipitation forecast accuracy of T639 model （29：07%） was obviously better than the Germany namerical model, and the two have the highest Ts-scores for 48-72 hours.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2013年第1期12-15,共4页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
降水预报
检验
T639模式
德国模式
新疆
precipitation forecast
verification
T639 model
Germany numerical model
Xinjiang
