摘要
本文在区分内外部影子银行的基础上,运用宏观资金流量分析法,对中国影子银行整体规模进行系统测度;通过Granger因果检验方法对影子银行发展与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。结果显示:在当前金融体制下,经济增长与影子银行发展存在单向因果关系,即经济增长为影子银行发展提供了基础,反之并不成立;经济增长与影子银行发展之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。为实现经济增长与影子银行协调发展的目标,本文提出政府部门应理性对待影子银行的发展,适度审慎监管,完善配套金融制度安排,推进利率市场化改革;商业银行则需要强化金融资产服务管理,规范内部影子银行业务发展。
Based on the distinction between the inside and the outside shadow banking, this paper uses the macro-cash-flow analysis to measure the overall size of Chinese shadow banking systematically, and empirically examines the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the economic growth by the Granger causality test. The results show that, in the current financial system, there is a unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the development of shadow bank- ing, which means that the economic growth provides the foundation for the development of shadow banking, but the converse is not so; there is a long-term stable and equilibrium relationship between the economic growth and the development of shadow banking. For the coordinated development of economic growth and shadow banking, the paper suggests that the government should rationally treat shadow banking, moderately and prudently supervise shadow banking, improve correlative financial system, promote the liberalization of interest rate; commercial banks need to strengthen the management of financial assets service, regulate the development of the business of internal shadow banking.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期9-14,36,共7页
Finance Forum
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"基于房价过度波动的系统性金融风险研究"(12BJY155)
关键词
影子银行
经济增长
金融发展与深化
shadow banking
economic growth
financial development and deepening
