摘要
为了提高广东省耕地资源利用效率、解决粮食安全问题,必须确定合理的耕地利用方向。本文选取经济发展阶段相异及资源禀赋类似的黑龙江省及日本作为对照,分析影响耕地利用过程中的投入产出及持续程度数据,利用功效系数模型,计算"三地"1999-2008年的耕地利用集约度;运用扩展的索洛模型,分析影响因素;结合日本近60年的耕地利用集约度发展轨迹,建立"三地"集约度之间的联系,提出广东省未来耕地利用方向。结果显示:广东省耕地利用集约度介于日本及黑龙江省中间,符合"三地"经济发展水平及政策环境;参考日本耕地利用集约度变化的运行规律,对比于集约化规模经营起步阶段中快速增长期的黑龙江省,广东省目前已进入经济发展持续成长期的黄金阶段;在快速城镇化过程中,广东省面临农业劳动力数量下降及劳动力人工成本提高的双重压力,未来耕地利用方向可借鉴日本资本密集型的经营方式。
In order to improve cultivated land use efficiency as well as to solve food security problems of Guangdong Province, it is necessary to determine reasonable cultivated land use direction. Heilongiiang Province and Japan select which are in different phase of economic development but similar endowment of resources as the references. Considered factors about input-output and sustainability data which influence the cultivated land intensive use comprehensively, the three study areas were calculated their use intensities of cultivated land during the period of 1999 to 2008 by means of the efficiency coefficient method. And the augmented Solow model was used to analyze the influencing factors. Combined with the cultivated land intensive degree development track of Japan for nearly 60 years, established contact with intensive degree of the three places, the author proposed the future utilization direction of cultivated land in Guangdong Province. Results show that the intensive degree of Guangdong Province is between Japan and Heilongjiang Province, which is accordant with their economic development level and policy environment. Refer to the change operation rule of cultivated land use intensity in Japan, relative to the rapid growth of initial stage of Heilongjiang Province which belongs to intensive scale management, Guangdong Province has already entered the gold phase of sustainable growth of economic development. With the rapid urbanization process, Guangdong Province faces the pressures including agricultural labor force down but labor cost growth. Thus, Guangdong Province should take the capital-intensive path of cultivated land utilization like Japan in future.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期210-214,共5页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目(编号:S2011010001107)
国土资源部公益性项目(编号:200911014-6)
关键词
耕地集约度评价
区域差异
影响因素
利用方向
广东省
黑龙江省
日本
cultivated land intensive degree evaluation
regional differences
influence factors
utilization direction
Guangdong Province
Heilongjiang Province
Japan
