摘要
目前有关大型建设项目对区域经济影响的理论和实证研究还很薄弱,分析和评价的结论往往具有一定的主观性和随意性。本研究根据大型建设项目对区域发展影响的特点,以及项目决策的目标要求等,建立了适合大型项目区域经济影响分析的局部闭型投入产出模型,试图科学测度和量化大型建设项目对地区经济增长、产业结构、就业以及城市化等方面的影响,增强大型建设项目区域经济影响分析的规范性和和合理性,提高大型建设项目决策依据的科学性。本研究以白鹤滩水电站建设项目为案例,通过编制四川、云南两省的可比价局部闭型投入产出表,运用局部闭型投入产出模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明,白鹤滩水电站在建设期将对项目建设区域内的四川、云南两省增加国民生产总值、加快工业化和城市化进程、扩大就业机会、优化产业结构等方面都具有积极的促进作用,对区域经济发展具有较为显著的影响。
The large-scale construction projects have significant impact on regional development, so the ra-tional evaluation theory and methodology become the key factors on deciding whether the large construction pro-ject is feasible＇or not. However, the related theoretical and empirical research is still very weak, and the analysis and evaluation tends to have a certain degree of subjectivity and arbitrariness. Based on the characteristics of the role of large construction projects on regional development, as well as the objectives and requirements of the pro- ject decision-making, we establish a local closed input-output model to analyze the regional economic impact of large construction projects, in order to increase the specification and rationality of the quantitative impact meas-urement, such as economic growth, industrial structure, employment and urbanization, and improve the scientific nature of decision-making. The Baihetan hydropower station construction project is selected as case study of em- pirical research. We prepare the comparable local closed-type input-output tables of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces and use the local closed input-output model to analyze and estimate the economic impact of large construction projects on regional economic development. Studies have shown that Baihetan hydropower station construction have positive role and significant impact on the economic development of construction area of Sichuan and Yun-nan provinces, such as promoting regional economic growth, accelerating the process of industrialization and ur-banization, the expanding employment opportunities, optimizing the industrial structure and so on.
关键词
大型建设项目
区域经济影响评价
局部闭型投入产出模型
白鹤滩水电站建
设项目
large construction project
regional economic impact analysis and assessment
local closedinput-output model
Construction Project of Baihetan Hydropower Station
