摘要
利用 1 958~ 1 995年湖南夏季雨量场 ,分析了经验正交函数 ( EOF) ,结果表明 ,它能反映降水的空间分布特征。将该场划分为 1 958~ 1 983年和 1 970~ 1 995年两段 ,对原始场和两个新场的 EOF进行了比较和讨论 ,发现在一定条件下 ,EOF是稳定的。将该场序列延伸至 1 997年 ,并划分为 1 958~ 1 977年和 1 978~ 1 997年两个不重合的时段 ;结果 EOF仍较稳定 ,这可能与场内平均相关状况的差异较小有关。在此基础上 ,采用主成份筛选的建模方案 ,制作了雨量场的长期预报。
The empirical orthogonal function(EOF)is analysed with rain field in summer of Hunan from 1958 to 1995.The resultes show EOF can mirror the features of spatial distribution of the precipitation field.Assigning the rain field in two section,from 1958 to 1983 and from 1970 to 1995.the stability of EOF on the three field are compared and discussed .It is shown EOF is stability under given conditions.Then the alignment stretches right to 1997,assigning the field two section of not crisscross,or from 1958 to 1977 and 1978 to 1997,the show EOF is stability yet.The cause possible relate to the difference is nor greatly in levels of average correlation within the fields.On the basis of above mentioned analysis,long range forecast of rain filed is maked using a modelling scheme of screening of chief component.
出处
《气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第4期492-499,共8页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
国家 96-90 8-0 5-0 4项目