摘要
利用耕地利用动态度和区域差异指数、环境—收入理论关系曲线及经济理论、灰色关联度分析、主成分分析、多元回归分析对2000—2009年间青岛市耕地的变化特点和驱动因子统计分析与比较。结果表明:耕地面积变化速度由强烈(2000—2003年动态度-0.106)变为缓慢(2006—2009年动态度0.014);主要驱动因子为人口城市化、经济建设和产业结构。青岛市耕地变化的区域差异和阶段性特征显著;受经济发展的惯性影响,耕地阶段性变化的时间相对于类比性的工业化阶段性变化的时间要滞后1～2a;耕地变化与人均GDP的关系呈倒N型曲线;产业结构和人口城市化分别是耕地面积变化的直接与深层次的影响因素。
Several study methods including land use dynamic index （LUDI） and regional differentiation index （RDI） of the cultivated land, environment income curve （EIC）, economic theory, grey relationship analysis （GRA）, principal component analysis （PCA） and multiple regression analysis （MRA） were applied to study the changes of the cultivated lands and their driving forces in Qingdao city during 2000 2009. It was obvious that the rate of changes of the cultivated lands switched from a higher level （LUDI --0. 106 during 2000 2003） to a lower one （LUDI 0. 014 during 2006--2009）. Urbanization, economic construction and industrial structure were the main driving forces during this period. The results also showed that the changes of the cultivated lands in Qingdao city had a remarkable regional differentiation and phasic characteristics. The phase transition of the cultivated lands usually lagged about 1 or 2 years behind the phrase transition of the an- alog industrialization due to the impact of the inertia of economic development. However, the curve of rela- tionship between cultivated land changes and per capita GDP showed an inverted ＇N＇ shape, which was dif- ferent from previous study results. Furthermore, industrial structure and population urbanization were the direct and pervasive influence factors of cultivated land changes respectively.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期108-114,共7页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项"典型海岸带地质环境监测关键技术与评价方法"(201011019)
关键词
耕地变化
驱动力
环境-收入理论关系曲线
灰色关联度分析
主成分分析
多元回归分析
青岛市
cultivated land change
driving force
environment-income curve （EIC）
grey relationship analysis （GRA）
principal component analysis （PCA）
multiple regression analysis （MRA）
Qingdao City
