我国城市化进程与减少碳排放的关系研究被引量：62

Research on Relationship Between Urbanization Process and Carbon Emission Reduction in China

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摘要基于城市化视角,运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法,实证了1978——2010年我国二氧化碳排放与城市化、经济增长、能源消耗、贸易开放的现实关系。研究显示:长期关系上,经济增长、能源消耗及贸易开放对二氧化碳排放均存在正向影响,而城市化则存在负向影响。短期关系上,经济增长和能源消耗对二氧化碳排放的正向影响较强;城市化对二氧化碳排放存在较强的负向作用;贸易开放与二氧化碳排放的关系难以确定。因果关系上,能源消耗与碳排放存在互为因果的双向影响机制;经济增长,贸易开放及城市化与碳排放仅存在单向影响机制,且均呈一定滞后特征。文章对实证结果逐一进行了解释并提出了相应政策建议。 On the perspective of urbanization, using co - integration and Granger causality test, empirically analyzes the realistic relationship among carbon dioxide emissions and urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness from 1978 to 2010. The results show ： in the long run, economic growth, energy consumption and trade open- ness have positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions, but urbanization negative. In the short run, economic growth and energy consumption have strong positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions; but urbanization strong negative one. The relationship between trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions is hard to decide. From the viewpoint of causality, there exists mutual influence mechanism that interacts as both cause and effect between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions ; there exists one - way influence mechanism among economic growth, trade openness, ur- banization and carbon dioxide emissions, and all the causalities possess characteristics of lag - phase to certain degree. The paper explains the empirical results one by one and proposes corresponding policy suggestions.

作者赵红陈雨蒙

机构地区重庆大学经济与工商管理学院重庆大学公共管理学院

出处《中国软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第3期184-192,共9页 China Soft Science

关键词城市化碳排放协整检验误差修正模型格兰杰因果分析 urbanization carbon dioxide emissions Co -integration Test VEC Model Granger Causality Test

分类号 F752.67 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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