我国养老保险的财务可持续性研究被引量：69

Studies on the Financial Sustainability of Social Pension System in China

导出

摘要在人口老龄化压力下,世界各国的公共养老金大多面临可持续发展的挑战,从而纷纷实施各种改革,以帮助恢复系统的财务偿付能力。在我国,从2011年7月开始实施的《社会保险法》对社会保险制度提出财务可持续发展的要求,但实践中并没有建立起相应的财务风险管理系统,相关的理论研究比较缺乏。本文在讨论社会养老保险财务可持续性的内涵和度量方法的基础上,通过建立精算评估模型,对我国社会养老保险的未来收支和长期精算平衡进行了测算分析。结果表明,如果不对现行制度实施改革,制度在未来的发展中将会面临支付赤字。建立多层次养老金体系,并采取提高退休年龄和调整待遇等改革措施,将会有效缓解制度的财务压力,有助于制度的财务可持续发展。 Abstract： As a result of global population ageing and economic slowdown, the public pension systems worldwide are facing with significant financial unsustainability and have to be reformed. In China, the Social Insurance Act im- plemented in 2011 has the requirement of financial sustainability for social pension system, but there are no financial risk management system in practice and related theoretical study on it. In this paper, we discussed the concept of financial sustainability of social pension systems and the method to measure it, and then built a long term actuarial model to evaluate the financial income, outgo and balance. The result was that, the current system would face with a serious financial insolvency problem in the future if the current system was not reformed. Lifting retirement age and cutting the benefit would help to recover financial balance but need to develop a multi-pillar system to provide adequate pension benefit.Key words： population ageing; social pension system ; actuarial models ; financial sustainability

作者王晓军任文东

机构地区中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心中国人民大学统计学院山东财经大学统计学院

出处《保险研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第4期118-127,共10页 Insurance Studies

基金教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(10JJD790037) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA910008) 国家自然科学基金项目(71173230)的资助

关键词人口老龄化养老保险精算模型财务可持续性 population ageing social pension system actuarial models financial sustainability

分类号 F840.67 [经济管理—保险]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献10

1Aaron George Grech, Assessing The Sustainability of Pension Reforms in Europe, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion [ D ]. London School of Economics,2010.
2Development Research Center of the State Council,the People's Republic of China, China 2030:Building a Modem ,Harmonious ,and Creative High-Income Society[ M ]. World Bank. Washington, D. C. 2012,4- 14.
3European Commission, Green Paper, Towards Adequate, Sustainable and Safe European Pension Systems, Brussels[ M ]. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union,2010.
4European Commission, Objectives and working methods in the area of pensions : Applying the open method of coordination, Joint Report of the Social Protection Committee and the Economic Policy Committee [ M ]. Lux- embourg: Official Publications of the European Communities ,2001.
5Holzmann, Robert and Richard Hinz,Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century:An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform[ M ]. Washington, D. C : World Bank,2005,55 - 58.
6Holzmann, Robert et al, Closing the Coverage Gap: the role of social pensions and other retirement income transfers [ M ]. World Bank. Washington, D. C. 2009,99 - 110.
7OECD, Pensions at a Glance 2011 : Retirement-income Systems In OECD and G20 Countries [ M ]. OECD, 2011,159.
8Roseveare, Deborah, et al. Ageing Populations, Pension System and Government Budgets : Simulations for 20 OECD Countries[ M]. OECD, 1996.
9World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis : Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth [ M ]. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994,38 - 164.
10Population Division of the Department of E-conomic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:The 2010 Revision, http ://esa. un. org/unpd/ wpp/index. htm.