摘要
目的描述河南省1985-2009年间的食管癌死亡率变化趋势，预测2010--2019年食管癌死亡率。方法从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取1985-2009年间死于食管癌的全部记录。计算各时期死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率（中标率）及世界人口标化死亡率（世标率），运用Joinpoint模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势。采用莱斯利矩阵分性别预测2010-2019年人口数据；运用APC（Age—period—cohort）模型预测2010-2019年河南省居民食管癌死亡率。结果1985-2009年间河南省生命统计登记中心报告死于食管癌总人数为72294人。男性中标率从1985-1989年间的49．49／10万下降到2005-2009年间的17．72／10万；女性相应时期的中标率由26．48／10万下降到9．06／10万。Joinpoint模型趋势参数显示：男、女性食管癌中标率呈逐年下降趋势，男性时间趋势有2个有意义的联结点，女性时间趋势有2个有意义的联结点。预测结果显示：2010-2019年河南省人口数平均增长率为4．38‰，2019年河南省15市县总人口数将达到1487万。2010-2014年的男性中标率为17．04／10万，女性中标率为8．73／10万。2015-2019年的男性中标率为16．67／10万，女性中标率为7．98／10万。结论预测结果显示2010-2019年河南省居民食管癌死亡率呈下降趋势，但其死亡率仍较高，应继续实施相关预防控制措施．．
Objective To investigate the esophagus cancer mortality trend from 1985 to 2009 and pro- ject future ten years （ 2010--2019 ） in Henan province. Methods The data of esophagus cancer deaths and popu- lation data from 1985 to 2009 was drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database. The mortality rates of periods and the age - standardized mortality rates by Chinese population （ 1982 ） and by world Segi＇s population were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the time trends of the mortality. Using the Leslie matrix to predict the population of Henan province during 2010--2019. The cancer mortality during 2010--2019 in Henan province was projected by APC regression model. Results A total of 72 294 cases which died from esophagus cancer were reported by vital statistics and registry center in Henan prov- ince from 1985 to 2009. Among male,the age - standardized mortality rates by Chinese population was 49.49 per 100,000 during period of 1985--1989 year and decreased to 17.72 per 100,000 during period of 2005--2009 year. For female, the age - standardized rates decreased from 26.48 per 100,000 to 9.06 per 100,000. The esti- mated trend parameters by Joinpoint model showed that the standardized - mortality rate of esophagus cancer by Chinese standard population showed the decreasing trend in both male and female. There are two joinpoint in male and two joinpoint in female. Predicted model demonstrated that the average rate of population increased in Henan province will be 4.38 %o during 2010--2019. The total population of the 15 cities and counties in Henan province in 2019 will reach 14.87 million. In the future, the age - standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard popula- tion in male and female will be 17.04 per 100,000 and 8.73 per 100,000 during 2010--2014, and those in male and female are 16.67 per 100,000 and 7.98 per 100,000 respectively during 2015--2019. Conclusion The mortality rates of esophagus cancer in Henan province showed the decreasing trend during the period of 2010-- 2019. But the mortality rate is still high. Prevention and control measures should be continued.
出处
《实用肿瘤学杂志》
CAS
2013年第2期124-129,共6页
Practical Oncology Journal
关键词
食管癌
死亡率
趋势
预测
Esophagus cancer
Mortality
Trend
Projection
