摘要
提出了一种基于多变量分析的城市电网空间负荷预测方法。该方法采用"自上而下"的方式来实现,首先建立计及经济、人口、气温等因素影响的多变量预测模型,并在此基础上预测出城市电网的负荷总量;然后根据城市用地信息,采用负荷密度指标法把负荷总量分配到各个供电小区,从而实现空间负荷预测。最后以吉林市城市电网为例进行分析,结果表明该方法是有效的。
An spatial load forecasting (SLF)method based on multivariate analysis is proposed. The method uses a "top-down" approach to achieve. Firstly, establish a multivariate prediction medol taking into account the economic, population, temperature factors. And on this basis, predic the total load of the urban power system. Then based on urban land use information, use the load density method to allocate load to each supply district in order to achieve the spatial laod forecasting. Finally, the effectiveness of the method are demonstrated by using the Jilin city power system.
出处
《东北电力大学学报》
2013年第1期39-44,共6页
Journal of Northeast Electric Power University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51177009)
吉林省教育厅科技项目(吉教科合字[2012]第101号)
东北电力大学博士科研启动基金资助(BSJXM-201004)
关键词
空间负荷预测
多变量预测模型
负荷密度指标法
地理信息系统
城市电网
Spatial load forecasting (SLF)
Multivariate prediction model
Load density method
Geographic information system(GIS)
Urban power system