认识中国经济的短期和长期视角被引量：29

导出

摘要经济周期现象与经济增长过程之间,既存在着密切相关的联系,相互发生重要的影响,又分别由不尽相同的因素所决定。因此,认识中国经济需要把短期和长期视角结合应用,才能对经济发展阶段和宏观经济形势做出正确的判断,形成具有针对性的政策应对思路。本文认为,中国经济发展阶段已经发生了根本性的变化,表现为供给方面的潜在产出能力降低。因此,从需求角度刺激增长速度的政策不仅不能奏效,从国际经验看还会造成灾难性的后果。鉴此,本文提出的政策建议是通过深化相关领域的改革,从供给的角度提高潜在增长率。

作者蔡昉

机构地区中国社会科学院

出处《经济学动态》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第5期4-9,共6页 Economic Perspectives

关键词刘易斯转折区间潜在增长率日本经济增长源泉

分类号 F124 [经济管理—世界经济]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献1

1Fang Cai,Yang Lu.Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China[J].China & World Economy,2013,21(2):1-14. 被引量：41

二级参考文献16

1Bai, Chong-En, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Yingyi Qian, 2006, "The return to capital in China," NBER Working Paper No. 12755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
2Bloom, David E. and Williamson Jeffrey G., 1998, "Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 419-55.
3Cai, Fang and Zhao Wen, 2012, "When demographic dividend disappears: Growth sustainability of China," in Masahiko Aoki and Jinglian Wu, eds, The Chinese Economy: A New Transition, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
4CDRF (China Development Research Foundation), 2012, China Development Report, 2012, Beijing: China Development Publishing House.
5Du, Yang and Lu Yang, 2011, "The natural rate of unemployment in China and its implications," The Journal of World Economy, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 3-21.
6Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin, 2011, "When fast growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China," NBER Working Paper No. 16919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
7Felipe, Jesus, 1997, "Total factor productivity growth in East Asia: A critical survey," EDRC Report Series No. 65, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines.
8Foster, Lucia, John Haltiwanger and Chad Syverson, 2008, "Reallocation, firm turnover, and efficiency: Selection on productivity or profitability?" American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 394-425.
9Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Peter J. Klenow, 2007, "Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India," NBER Working Paper No. 13290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
10Kharas, Homi, 2011, "China's transitions to a high income economy: Escaping the middle income trap," in Lim Edwin and Michael Spence, eds, The Medium and Long Term Development and Transformation of the Chinese Economy: An International Perspective, Beiing: CITIC Publishing House, pp. 470-501.