摘要
化石能源资源可持续利用就是要保证可再生能源资源转化利用技术的不断提升、直至实现后者对前者潜力性替代.在量化可再生能源利用技术进步水平基础上,结合我国GDP增长目标的确立、化石能源耗竭进程的安排、CO_2减排目标的实现等问题,针对国内化石能源资源可持续利用和限定目标年(2050年)能耗总量两种情景,采用系统动力学模型对我国可再生能源2011-2045年的替代路径进行仿真.在保持化石能源资源年增探明储量10亿吨标煤条件下:维持可再生能源预期投资0.767%的年度GDP规模,国内化石能源资源可持续利用到2045年的GDP年均增速上限是7.01%,"十二五"期间RE累计投资总额为1.88万亿元,2020年的RE替代率为11.53%;在控制2050年我国总能耗为52亿吨标煤的情景下,GDP的年均增速上限是5.705%,"十二五"期间RE投资总额为1.805万亿元,2020年的RE替代率为12.84%.同时,对CO_2减排目标及可再生能源替代率目标的实现进行研究,并给出政策建议.
Extracting fossil energy sources（FES） sustainably must be kept with the indwelling technology improvement in exploring renewable energy sources（RES） and realize renewable energy（RE） potentially substituting fossil energy（FE）. Two scenarios of RE substitute pathway in China from 2011 to 2045, insuring national FES consumption until 2045 and limiting the quality of total energy consumption below 5.2 billion tce in 2050, are researched with the system dynamics model based on quantifying the level of technology progress adopted in field of exploring RES connecting with some factors such as China＇s GDP growth target, fossil energy depletion process and CO2 emission reduction targets. The results of the first scenario show that the upper limit of the average annual GDP growth rate is 7.01 percent, the cumulative investment in the field of RE is 1.88 trillion RMB during the period of ＂12th five-Year＂, and RE substitute rate will reach to 11.53 percent in 2020 under the condition of keeping annually increasing 1 billion tce in FES and maintaining investing 0.767 percent GDP expected in RE field. And the results of the second scenario show that the upper limit of the average annual GDP growth rate is 5.705 percent, the cumulative investment in the field of RE is 1.805 trillion RMB during the period of ＂12th five-Year＂, and RE substitute will rate reach to 12.84 percent in 2020. At the same time, how to establish the targets of CO2 emission reduction and RE rate in 2020 are involved and policies connected are given.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期58-70,共13页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"矿产资源跨期优化配置机制研究(11&ZD163)"
国家社会科学基金"边缘地接受区域中心城市经济辐射研究(12BJL069)
盐城工学院科研启动项目(kjc2012009)
