摘要
基于寻求粮食主产区粮食安全理想方案的目标,以德惠市为例,定量刻画了影响粮食生产的关键要素之间以及要素与粮食生产之间的作用关系,构建了粮食生产系统的SD模型。根据最初拟设的4种情景,模拟了单要素变化下粮食生产能力的变动趋势,并结合多个单要素情景模拟结果,提出了更符合实际需求的多要素变化情景(综合情景)。根据模型运行结果,提出了保障区域粮食安全的政策建议:(1)保障水资源供给能力;(2)德惠中长期粮食安全目标是保持总量在200万吨左右;(3)水田比例应以不超过35%为宜;(4)城市化年均增长率应以1个百分点为上限。
With the purpose of seeking an ideal plan for grain security in major grain production areas,the system dynamics model of grain production was set up to describe the interactions among key factors impacting grain production in Dehui city.According to the four proposed scenarios,the change trends of grain production capacity were simulated under single factor change conditions.By combining the simulation results of the four single factors,a multi-factors scenario was proposed,which was rather in line with the actuality.Based on the results of system dynamics model,the policy suggestions for ensuring regional grain security were put forward：（1） the water supply capacity should be secured;（2） the goal of mid-and long-term grain security in Dehui city should maintain the total production of 2 million tons;（3） the appropriate ratio of paddy field should be no more than 35 percent;and（4） the annual growth rate of urbanization should be 1 percent at most.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期196-202,共7页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41001076
41071108)
中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目课题"东北粮食主产区粮食安全情景模拟实验研究"
中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06-03)
关键词
粮食安全
情景模拟
系统动力学
商品粮基地
德惠
grain security
scenario simulation
system dynamics
commercial grain production base
Dehui city
