摘要
通过使用多变量VAR模型和多变量VEC模型,本文检验了中国经济增长是否是出口导向型的。结果表明,在多变量VAR框架下,结论是不确定的,且结论与样本期选择有关,而在多变量VEC框架下,结论是明确的,即经济增长和出口增长存在双向Granger因果关系。同时,VDCs分析表明,我国经济增长的主要原因是国内需求和政府干预,而非出口。因此,本文研究没有发现证据表明中国经济是出口导向型的。
The paper tests whether the Chinese economic growth is export-led by using multi-variable VAR and VEC models.It suggests that the conclusions are uncertain under the multi-variable VAR model and associate with the selected sample period,but the conclusions are certain under multi-variable VEC model.There is bidirectional Granger causality between economic growth and export growth.Simultaneously VDCs suggest that domestic demand and government intervention are the first two momentums in Chinese economic growth.So there is no evidence that indicates Chinese economic growth is export-led one.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期24-28,12,共6页
Forecasting
