摘要
采用Eviews6.0软件,利用ADF检验以及Granger因果关系检验,考查2005至2011年中国农产品出口额与名义汇率和实际汇率的关系。实证结果显示:人民币名义汇率对农产品出口影响不大,而实际汇率更能影响农产品出口。格兰杰因果分析说明:人民币汇率贬值,农产品出口额会显著增加,而人民币升值,农产品出口额会显著减少。最后在对实证结果进行解释的基础上,从国家层面对应对汇率和应对农产品出口提出建议,从农产品自身层面建议加强成本控制、优化农产品结构、利用优惠政策和提高农产品质量。
Based on the data from 2005 to 2011, using the software of Eviews6. 0 and by the method of ADF and Granger test , the article testify the relationship between the export value of Chinese agricultural products and the nominal and real exchange rate of RMB, The results show that while the nominal exchange rate of RMB has rare influence on the export value of Chinese agricultural products, the real exchange rate of RMB has impact on it, The Granger test explain that the exchange depreciation of RMB make the increasing export value of Chinese agricultural products. If the exchange rate of RMB increases, the export value of Chinese agricultural products will remarkably decrease. Finally, the article gives de- tailed advice by the level of the country and the farmer themselves.
出处
《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2013年第5期471-475,共5页
Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(090BJY082)
天津市哲学社会科学研究规划项目(TJYY12-138)
关键词
名义汇率
实际汇率
农产品出口
汇率制度
Nominal Exchange Rate
Real Exchange Rate
Export of Agricultural Products
Exchange Rate System
