摘要
根据20多年地下水预报地震的经验,分析地下水异常范围、异常幅度、异常数量、异常时间、异常组合及异常的时空转移等特点,总结出了14条判别地震三要素的水位异常特征。以恰当的数学方法将其定量化,采用带权判别的方法,算出了判定发震震级、时间、地点概率值。发震时间的判定,给出了时间分布概率密度函数,并据此得出综合时间发震概率曲线,几个地震的内符检验表明,本模块具有一定的可行性。
Fourteen characteristics of water-level anomaly for discriminating three elements of earthquakes have been summarized according to the experience in predicting earthquakes by using groundwater data for more than 20 years; the groundwater anomaly range, abnormal amplitude, anomalous amount, anomalous time, abnomal composition and anomalous time-space migration were analyzed. All these are quantized by suitable mathematical methods, and the probabilitic values for the predicted magnitude, occurrance time and place are computed using weighted discrimination method. For the occurrance time prediction, a brobable density function of time-distribution is given, and thus the synthetic probability curve for occurrance time is obtained. Internal tests with serveral earthquakes show that this module is of a certain feasibility.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第3期31-36,共6页
Earthquake
