摘要
自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,发达国家应对危机政策的负外部性以及中国经济相对实力的上升,促进中国政府开始主动推进人民币国际化。基于韬光养晦策略、发展中国家地位以及货币国际化前景的不确定性,使得中国政府刻意避免对人民币国际化做出正式表态。中国政府推动人民币国际化的政策举措沿着三条主线铺开:推动跨境贸易与投资的人民币结算、促进离岸人民币市场发展、与若干经济体央行签署双边本币互换。迄今为止,跨境贸易与投资的人民币结算与离岸人民币市场发展均取得显著进展,但与此同时也产生了离岸与在岸人民币市场之间的跨境套利行为盛行的问题。只要中国经济能够保持持续较快增长、中国金融市场能够持续发展壮大,同时中国能够避免系统性经济金融危机的爆发,人民币有望在10年至20年时间内成长为重要的国际性货币。为推动人民币国际化向前发展,中国政府应该加快国内结构性改革、加速国内金融市场改革与对内开放、避免过快开放资本账户、促进对外直接投资的人民币计价结算,以及推动人民币成为国际价值储藏手段。
Since the breakout of the global financial crisis in 2008,China has been actively pushing forward the internationalization of RMB as a response to the externalities of advanced countries' crisis intervention and the relative rise of her economic power.Considering her role as a developing economy and the uncertainty in currency internationalization,China takes a low-key strategy and avoids any formal confirmation of her position in this issue.The policy on RMB internationalization includes three parts:RMB settlement of cross-board trade and investment,off-shore RMB market,and bilateral currency swaps with other monetary authorities.So far China makes significant progress in RMB settlement of cross-board trade and investment and off-shore RMB market but also faces the problem of rampant arbitrage between off-shore RMB market and mainland jurisdiction.If China can keep rapid and stable growth in economic and financial market,RMB may become one of the most important international currencies in 10 to 20 years.To enhance RMB internationalization,Chinese government should accelerate domestic reform and market opening,keep a reasonable pace in capital account liberalization,facilitate RMB settlement of outwards FDI,and promote RMB’s role as an international instrument of value storage.
出处
《金融评论》
2013年第2期15-27,123,共13页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
关键词
资本账户开放
人民币汇率
Capital Account Liberalization
RMB Exchange Rate
