摘要
根据大同地区8个县市1972—2009年逐日气温、降水量数据,采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和R/S分析法研究了大同地区年降水量时间序列和空间序列变化规律,结果表明:大同地区降水量和汛期降水量均呈缓慢减少趋势。2001年前后大同地区各县市年降水趋势发生逆转,大部分县市降水量呈少量增加趋势。1972—2009年,大同地区汛期降水高频周期以准3 a周期为主,同时存在准15 a的低频周期。从低频周期变化可以看出1973—1978年、1990—1997年、2004—2009年为多雨期;1982—1986年、1997—2001年为少雨期。1993—1996年,大同地区高频周期转为准5 a,同时叠加准15 a的低频周期。大同地区各县市年降水量存在明显的Hurst现象,大部分县市降水量未来变化基本保持现有减少趋势,个别县市降水量未来变化趋势不明显。
Using daily temperature and precipitation data of 8 cities in Datong from 1972 to 2009,we presented the spatio-temporal changes of Datong region by method of the trend analysis,MannKendall mutation testing and R/S analysis.The result showed showed as follows.The annual and flood seasonal precipitation slowly abated.Around 2001,the precipitation of Datong region changed greatly and the precipitation of most cities increased.From 1972 to 2009,there was a high frequent oscillation period of 3a in flood seasonal precipitation at Datong region,and also a low frequent oscillation period of 15a.It obviously showed that the more precipitation period was in 1973-1978,1990-1997 and 2004-2009,and the less precipitation period was in 1982-1986,1997-2001.The precipitation at Datong region existed the Hurst phenomenon,precipitation trend at most cities in future will keep decreasing trend just as those at present while those at few cities will be not obvious.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2013年第3期26-31,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201217)
关键词
降水
变化趋势
大同地区
precipitation
change trend
Datong region
