摘要
通过构建包含房地产部门的多部门NKMP-DSGE框架,考察限购引起的房地产需求冲击等外生冲击对于房价波动以及社会福利损失的效应。研究表明,利率、房地产需求以及房价加成等冲击对于房价波动以及社会福利损失具有较大的冲击效应。基于社会福利损失最小化的角度,进一步对已有的房地产调控政策效果进行评估,发现宏观审慎政策是最优的,而仅盯住房地产产出缺口(类似于仅盯住保障房建设)等政策机制的效果相对较差。因此,对房地产市场垄断势力进行规制,并采用宏观审慎政策对房地产市场进行调控,有利于实现降低社会福利损失并有效调控楼市的"双赢"。
We consider a multi-sector NKMP-DSGE model with hosing, and investigate the effects of housing purchase restriction shocks on housing price volatility and social welfare loss. The result shows that interest rate shocks, housing demand shocks and housing price markup shocks has significant impacts on housing price volatility and welfare loss. Based on the minimization of welfare loss, we investigate the effects of various housing market regulation policy, and the result demonstrates that the macro-prudential policy is optimal. Then we argue that quit the purchase restriction policy, regulate the monopoly power in housing sector, and impose the macro-prudential policy will promote the win-win effects.
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
北大核心
2013年第4期1-9,共9页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
关键词
房价波动
房地产
需求抑制
限购
宏观审慎政策
housing price volatility
real estate
control consumption
housing purchase restriction
macro-prudential policy
