摘要
耕地资源数量与经济发展关系密切,为研究耕地资源数量与经济发展之间的关系,采用脉冲响应函数与方差分解方法对石家庄市1999—2009年的耕地资源面积与人均GDP、第二产业产值、第三产业产值和农民人均年纯收入之间的关系进行了计量分析,以协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾。结果表明:(1)石家庄市耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系。(2)从动态角度看,在短期内经济发展会引发耕地数量的减少,控制耕地数量会抑制经济的发展;从长期看,经济水平的提高会促进耕地数量的增加,经济发展对耕地的依赖程度减弱。(3)方差分解结果显示,耕地数量对经济指标预测方差的贡献率较大,尤其对人均GDP、第二产业、农民人均纯收入的影响在第3期之后都超过了75%;经济指标对耕地数量预测方差的贡献度相对较小,其中农民人均纯收入对耕地资源数量的影响最小,仅在1%左右。因此建议从提高经济效率、加强耕地保护、提高土地利用集约度等方面促进社会经济的可持续发展。
The cultivated land quantity is closely related to economic development.In order to study the relationship between the number of cultivated land resources and economic development,econometric analysis was made on the area of arable land resources,per capita GDP,the secondary industrial value,the tertiary industry value and farmers′per capita annual net income in the period from 1999to 2009in Shijiazhuang City,and the method of the impulse response function and variance decomposition were used for the purpose of coordinating the contradiction of farmland protection and economic development.The result shows that ：（1） there exists equilibrium relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development in the long term;（2） economic development will lead to a reduction in the area of arable land,controlling the amount of cultivated land will inhibit the development of the economy in short term;while the high economy will promote the increase of arable land,and the dependence of economic development on the arable land is weaken in the long term;（3） the variance partition result shows that the contribution rate of the cultivated land quantity to the economic indicators is more significant,especially for the rate of the per capita GDP,secondary industries,and rural per capita net income more than 75%after three periods;while contribution rate of economic indicators to the cultivated land is lower,the percentage of impact of per capita net income of farmers on the quantity of arable land resources is only about 1%.Therefore,in order to promote sustainable socio-economic development,the following measures should be taken to improve economic efficiency,to strengthen the protection of cultivated land,to improve land use intensity and so on.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期211-217,225,共8页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河北省社会科学发展研究项目(201203073)
河北省软科学研究计划项目(114072172D)
河北省社会科学基金(HB12SH044)
关键词
耕地资源
经济发展
脉冲响应函数
石家庄市
cultivated land resources
economic development
impulse response function
Shijiazhuang City
