摘要
本文以汇率为核心变量,通过引入双均衡模型来研究一国长期的最优外汇储备的规模。外汇储备由一国的外部收支决定,但仅仅为实现外部平衡而确定的外汇储备是否就是最优的呢?本文通过定义一国经济增长方式的差异界定了内部均衡的概念,并证明了内部均衡和外部平衡并不总是能同时达到。那么,一国若要维持长期稳定的增长,就势必需要兼顾内外双重均衡,这就影响了最优外汇储备规模的决定。最优外汇储备规模即是实现双重均衡时的储备规模,或者是外部失衡可维持前提下经济持续增长所对应的储备规模。
This paper uses exchange rate as the core variable and introduces dual-balance model to study the optimal scale of long-term foreign exchange reserves.Foreign exchange reserves are decided by a country's external balance,but is it the best only to meet the needs of the external balance? We define the concept of internal equilibrium by differentiating the two economic growth modes,and we prove that the internal balance and external balance are not always requiring the same optimal foreign exchange reserves.Thus,for a country to maintain long-term stable growth,it has to balance both internally and externally,which affects the decision of optimal scale of foreign exchange reserves.This paper concludes that the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserves is the scale to realize the dual-balance,or the scale to sustain internal economic growth while allowing external imbalances to some extent.
出处
《复旦学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期10-16,25,共8页
Fudan Journal（Social Sciences）
基金
教育部重大课题攻关项目"人民币均衡汇率问题研究"(项目批准号:05JZD0012)的扩展成果
关键词
外部平衡
内部均衡
最优外汇储备
external balance
internal balance
optimal foreign exchange reserves
