摘要
基于126个县域的统计数据,运用探索性空间分析技术等方法,揭示1980—2010年河南省县域粮食生产的格局演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:①2010年河南省粮食总产量达到5 437.1×104t,县域粮食生产以上升为主并逐步向产粮大县和平原区集中;②县域粮食生产具有明显的正相关,局域范围内的空间相关性强烈,粮食生产显著高高集聚类型区在以周口为中心的黄淮平原区聚集,显著低低集聚类型区主要分布在豫西山地丘陵区,且研究期内高高集聚、低低集聚的能力不断增强;③31年间河南省粮食生产重心向东南方向偏移了26.07 km,县域粮食生产"东高西低"的经向差异更加明显;④不同时期,粮食产量空间格局的影响因素存在显著差异,随着时间的推移,耕地面积、上一期粮食产量、复种指数等的影响显著提高。
Taking the 126 counties （including counties, cities and municipal districts） as the study object, an integrated approach combining exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA） method with GIS technology was used to analyze spatio-temporal dynamic changes of county-level grain production from 1980 to 2010 in Henan Province. The main results are as follows： Firstly, the amount of grain production was increased to 5 437.1 × 10^4 t in 2010; grain production in 118 counties showed an upward trend and gradually concentrated in the plain area. Secondly, county-level grain production showed a positive spatial autocorrelation pattern. By the LISA analysis, the counties of ＂High-High＂ type gathered in Huang-Huai plain, while the counties of ＂Low-Low＂ type gathered in western Henan mountainous and hilly areas. The significant local spatial clustering pattern was showed and regional segment of grain production became more and more evident. Thirdly, the center of county-level grain production shifted 26.07 km to the east-south direction in 30 years, and the ＂high-east and low-west＂ distribution pattern of county grain production was further strengthened. Lastly, the factors that affected regional pattern of grain production were significantly different, and the significance of the main factors as cultivated land area, grain production in former term, multiple cropping index and planting structure were enhanced as time went by.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期150-155,共6页
Areal Research and Development
基金
农业部公益性行业科研项目(200903009)
中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室2012年度开放基金资助课题(DP173163-2012)
关键词
粮食生产
时空变化
探索性空间数据分析
河南省
grain production
spatio-temporal dynamic change
exploratory spatial data analysis
Henan Province
