摘要
本文根据Cohen的地缘政治理论和王铮等的地缘政治经济学观点,构建了一个简化世界为三国模型,并假设世界存在三种类型的地缘政治经济学国家:金融业主导国家,制造业主导国家及资源开发业主导国家。模型结构追随了经典的C-P模型,通过引入汇率,并将制造业生产函数扩展为三要素的CES形式,用以分析汇率变动下,三国就业的交互影响特征。在模型构建的基础上,采用C#与Matlab联合编程对经济危机的模拟进行系统实现。对于模型的最优化算法核心部分,采用Matlab编写,并通过C#实现调用接口进行运算。从而开发了三国经济模拟系统,并运用模拟系统进行了相关的模拟分析。模拟发现,无论是金融业主导国家,制造业主导国家,还是资源开发业主导国家,只要有这个国家本身参与的贬值情景,其就业状况就会有所改善;没有这个国家参与的贬值情景,其就业状况则会出现不同程度的降低。制造业主导国家的汇率变化更容易发挥影响力,资源开发业主导国家则更容易受到汇率变化的影响,金融业主导国家则不大容易受到别国汇率变化的影响。
This paper presents a simple three-country model which, like the canonical core-periphery （CP） model. However, in contrast to that model, the manufacturing func- tions are expanded to three elements CES production function, and the present model in- troduced exchange rate, contains three types country： financial centralized country, re- sources centralized country and manufacturing centralized country. But in this paper, wefocus on the effect of exchange rate on the employment of three countries. Based on the model, a computer system is constructed using C# and Matlab. As for the kernel, this paper used Matlab platform; to the interface, C# is used. After all, this paper simulated financial crisis successfully. As long as we concern, the employment rate will increase when a country takes part in devaluation no matter what type it belongs to. On the other side, the participation of other countries weakens the former＇s employment increment while the ones failing participation see the growth in employment whose result is influ- enced by the amount of participation countries. Besides, the financial centralized countries observe a relatively less impact of devaluation on their employment rate; the manufactur- ing centralized countries would be heavily affected by the devaluation while resource cen- tralized countries are much sensitive to it register as the vibrant in employment rate. An- other point is that financial centralized countries have least influence on other countries considering the change of rate; as to manufacturing centralized countries which has a mid-level force in the reaction of other countries to its mutative rate experience a great- est impact on employment rate; after all resource centralized countries influenced other countries most on their response to employment rate. To put it frankly, given employ- ment rate, manufacturing centralized countries play a most important role while resource centralized countries are easily disturbed by others, besides, we do not see much can the financial centralized countries do.
出处
《世界地理研究》
CSSCI
2012年第4期1-12,22,共13页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金(41171104)
面向国家经济安全的地缘政治经济学研究
中国科学院创新工程重点项目
中国科学院创新工程重点项目
跨国经济相互作用政策模拟器开发的基础研究
项目编号:KACX1-YW-0907
关键词
三国模型
汇率
就业
three-country model
exchange rates
employment
simulation.
