摘要
通过对历史文献资料的搜集与整理,利用最小二乘法、小波分析和克里格插值等方法,对汉江上游历史时期(877B.C.-2010A.D.)以来寒冻灾害的等级、发生时间(阶段、季节变化和周期等)和空间变化规律及其对社会的影响进行了研究。结果表明:汉江上游历史时期以来共发生寒冻灾害118次,平均每24.46年发生1次。将寒冻灾害划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的16.1%,62.71%和21.19%;小波分析显示,各等级的寒冻灾害依次存在5-8a、20-23a、55a的周期变化。汉江上游历史时期以来寒冻灾害呈现波动上升趋势,阶段性特征明显,经历了频次较少-波动增加-快速增加三个阶段;春季寒冻灾害发生频次最高,且以霜灾为主。寒冻灾害对社会经济发展、农业生产、社会稳定、人口数量变化等方面产生了重要影响。初步确定汉江上游历史时期发生了两次寒冷气候事件,时间在公元1640-1700年和1840-1870年;现代寒冷气候事件需进一步考究。
Based on collecting, reorganizing and analyzing of the historical documents about freezing disaster in upper reaches of Hanjiang river during historical period, using the methods of least squares, wavelet analysis, mathematical statistics, the rule of time occurrence （stage, seasonal changes and disasters cycle） and spatial variation and its social impact of freezing disaster were studied in this study. The results showed that the freezing disaster happened 118 times in upper reaches of Hanjiang river, with averagely once every 24.46 years. Freezing disaster grade could be divided into mild, moderate and severe disaster, and their occurrence probabilities were 16.1%, 62.71% and 21.19%. Wavelet analysis showed that mild freezing disaster happened once 5 -8 years moderate freezing disaster did once about 20 -23 years, and severe freezing disaster did once 60 -55 years. Freezing disaster in the upper reaches of Hanjiang river showed the volatility rising trend since historical period, phase characteristics, experienced a frequency less - increased volatility - a rapid increase in three stages; spring freezing disaster occured most frequently, and mainly the frost disaster. Freezing disaster had a major im- pact on the prevailing socio -economic development, agricultural production, social stability, population chan- ges, etc. Therefore, primary conclusions can be made that there were two cold climatic events in upper reaches of Hanjiang river during historical period,which occurred during 1640 -1700 and 1840 -1870 respectively.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第8期83-89,共7页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZS009)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41030637)
教育部博士点基金优先发展领域项目(No.20110202130002)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目(GK201002015)资助
关键词
寒冻灾害
社会影响
小波分析
历史时期
汉江上游
freezing disaster
social impact
wavelet analysis
historical period
upper reaches of Hanjiang river
