摘要
能源产业是国民经济的基础产业,制定合理的能源价格机制来保证能源供给与能源需求的相对平衡具有重要的意义。基于对北京市居民进行的问卷调查和深度访谈,分析了北京市居民的能源消费结构,并运用协整计量经济模型和回归分析,探究了北京市居民的能源价格响应情况。结果表明,居民电力和天然气的收入弹性为正,液化石油气和煤炭的收入弹性为负;居民能源自价格弹性最大的是液化石油气,最小的是煤炭,电力和天然气的自价格弹性分别为-0.22和-0.44;电力和天然气之间的交叉价格弹性相对较大,替代关系较强。电动汽车具有很多潜在用户,从未来来看,随着电动汽车补贴等政策激励机制的加强,电力和石油之间的交叉弹性将增大。
The energy industry is the basic industry of the national economy, so the development of rational energy pricing mechanism to ensure the relative balance of energy supply and energy demand has great significance. According to the survey and depth interviews of residents in Beijing, the structure of energy consumption of Beijing residents is analyzed in this paper, and co-integration econometric mod- el and regression analysis are used to explore the energy price response of residents. The results show that the income elasticity of residential electricity and natural gas is positive, but income elasticity of liquefied petroleum gas and coal is negative. As to residential energy own-price elasticity, the largest one is liquefied petroleum gas while the smallest one is coal. The own-price elasticity of electricity and natural gas is - 0. 22 and - 0.44 respectively. The cross-price elasticity between electricity and natural gas is relatively large, and their substitution relationship is strong. cles have a lot of potential users, cross Due to electric vehi- elasticity between e-lectricity and oil will increase with the strengthening of the electric vehicle subsidies and other policy incentives in the future
出处
《现代电力》
北大核心
2013年第4期88-94,共7页
Modern Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273089)
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9122022)
关键词
居民能源消费
协整关系
GRANGER因果检验
能源价格响应
residential energy consumption
co-integrationrelationship
Granger causality test
energy prices response
