摘要
选取重庆1985—2011年物流与经济增长相关数据,应用ADF方法、DF-GLS方法和PP方法对时间序列进行了单位根对比性检验,应用EG两步法对时间序列进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验。研究表明:货物周转量和物流网络里程同时作为解释变量分析物流发展与经济增长关系时会引起共线性问题;物流业总产值和经济增长不具有协整关系;货物周转量与经济增长具有协整关系且有单向的格兰杰因果关系,即经济增长会使得货物周转量增加。
The paper makes a unit root contrast test on time series, based on data of logistics and economical development from 1985 to 2011 in Chongqing, using ADF , DF GLS and PP methods. It uses EG two step method to make cointegra tion analysis and granger causality test on time series. Studies show that when analyzing the relationship between logistics development and economic growth, the logistics network mileage and freight volume as explanatory variables can cause the collinearity problems. Logistics output value and economic growth donl have cointegration relationship. Freight turnover and economic growth have not only cointegration relationship, but unidirectional granger cause. In other words, economic growth can induce an increase in freight turnover.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第17期239-244,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"废旧汽车资源化逆向物流系统结构与回收网络设计"(09YJC630247)
重庆市科学技术委员会软科学重点项目"废旧汽车绿色回收物流及发展策略研究"(cstc2011cx-rkxB00019)
关键词
协整理论
区域物流
经济增长
格兰杰因果关系
cointegration theory
regional logistics
economical growth
granger causality
