摘要
利用1978年—2011年的数据,对我国经济增长与城市化之间的关系进行了实证分析。首先,建立一元线性回归模型,发现我国经济增长与城市化之间呈正向关系;进一步建立非参数回归模型,发现1992年以前经济增长速度比较平稳,城市进程与经济增长步调基本一致;1992年以后,经济飞速增长,相比经济发展城市化进程有些滞后,经济增长对城市化进程的影响有滞后效应。相比线性回归模型,非参数回归模型在判定二者之间的关系时,更具体更加符合实际情况。
The data of 1978-2011 are used to analyze the relationship between economic growth and urbanization in China. Firstly, a linear regression model is established. A positive relation between China＇s economic growth and urbanization is found. Further, non-parametric regression model is established. It is found that economic growth be-fore 1992 is more stable, and the processes of urbanization and economic growth are almost the same. After 1992, economic growth has accelerated, and is much higher than the rate of urbanization, economic growth is lag behind the urbanization process. Compared with the linear regression model, the nonparametrie regression model is more in accordance with the actual situation.
出处
《石家庄经济学院学报》
2013年第4期39-41,共3页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics
关键词
非参数
经济增长
城市化
non-parametric
economic growth
urbanization
